Yesterday delivered major volatility across several currency pairs, with the USD at the center of much of the disruption. Following Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday evening, U.S. equity markets took a sharp downturn, prompting a significant sell-off of the dollar.
The EUR/USD pair was one of the biggest movers, posting its strongest daily gain since 2015, surging as much as 2.3% at one point during the afternoon session. Since then, the market has partially corrected, with some stability returning to the greenback after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobless claims data showed fewer individuals filing for unemployment benefits.
It’s been a fast-paced and event-heavy week for the markets, but it’s not over yet. Eyes now turn to today’s key economic releases, with U.S. non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings due at 1:30pm (UK time).
Expectations are for a slight dip in wage growth, which could raise short-term concerns over inflation, particularly as import prices rise in response to the new tariffs. Non-farm payrolls are forecast to show a slowdown, with consensus estimates suggesting just 135,000 jobs added—a 15,000 decline from last month and potentially the lowest figure since November 2024.
Beyond the U.S., attention is also turning to Brussels, where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is reportedly preparing retaliatory measures in response to the U.S. tariffs. While no official stance has yet been announced, discussions are underway, and any formal EU response could further drive volatility in both currency and equity markets.
GBP/EUR 1.1811 GBP/USD 1.2995 GBP/AED 4.7769
GBP/AUD 2.0915 GBP/CHF 1.1098 GBP/CAD 1.8371
GBP/NZD 2.2821 EUR/USD 1.0993 GBP/ZAR 24.7756