This morning, the British pound (GBP) has shown strength, breaking through the 1.20 barrier against the euro (EUR) and approaching 1.30 against the U.S. dollar (USD). This rise was fueled by better-than-expected retail sales for February. Initially, a contraction was forecasted, with expectations that retail sales would fall by 0.3%. However, actual data revealed a 1% increase, driven by strong performance in the clothing and household goods sectors. Over the past three months, retail sales have grown by 0.3%, signaling positive momentum in the market.
However, this uplift may be short-lived. Earlier this week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves downgraded economic growth predictions for 2025, raising concerns about long-term stability.
Today’s market session remains relatively quiet until 12:30 PM when the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index is released. This index serves as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measurement. Since December last year, inflation levels have shown a month-on-month increase, currently sitting at 0.3%. The forecast for March suggests that the PCE index will remain unchanged at 0.3%. However, the Federal Reserve has recently revised its inflation expectations for 2025, increasing its projection from 2.5% to 2.8% annually.
GBP/EUR 1.2000 GBP/USD 1.2930 GBP/AED 4.7513
GBP/AUD 2.0540 GBP/CHF 1.1414 GBP/CAD 1.8527
GBP/NZD 2.2617 EUR/USD 1.0766 GBP/ZAR 23.4823