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France votes against Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s budget

France voted against prime minister Michel Barnier’s budget yesterday – now leaving months of political uncertainty again. It’s not the first time this year we have seen political chaos in France. Looking back to the summer months when there was a vote of no confidence against President Macron – splitting the government. Officials are now saying that prime minister Michel Barnier will have to step down tomorrow. France will now be left without a government in charge until their next election, which is likely to happen around July in 2025.

Moving towards 2025, EU are facing big political issues – with their two biggest economies without a running government Germany and France. We did see the effects on the EUR yesterday with GBP/EUR almost touching the 1.21-mark before consolidating back down to the mid 1.20-mark. While EUR/USD fell below the 1.05-region over the day and have since recovered back up above the 1.05-mark. Today’s EUR strength is coming from rumours of intervention from ECB (European Central Bank) who would have to solve the issue of sovereign debt within the EU. Even if the ratio between debt-to-GBP ration has fallen in the Euro zone, they’re still at a higher level than preferred by the Central Bank. ECB has admitted that there could be a possibility to adjust primary focus to ‘’Transmission Protection instrument’’ and solely focus on keeping French borrowing costs down. This would be seen as an intervention from ECB to protect the development in France.

There has been news from outside of Europe too, seeing UK BRC retail sales monitor produce very poor figures for November, seeing a decline of 3.3% and a retraction for the first time since July earlier in the year. Even the Black Friday period couldn’t help keeping up retail figures, with in particular online non-food sales declining by 10.3%. Increasing energy prices changed consumer spending and confidence in November. Retailers are now hopeful that households are holding off spending ahead of the Christmas period and can see an uplift.

GBP/EUR 1.2034 GBP/USD 1.2669 GBP/AED 4.6554
GBP/AUD 1.9514 GBP/CHF 1.1214 GBP/CAD 1.7772
GBP/NZD 2.1502 EUR/USD 1.0515 GBP/ZAR 22.9259

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