This morning we’ve seen the Euro-USD rate dip below 1.08 adding to the sustained pressure the Euro has been under. With the Euro economy struggling and inflation continuing to hold lower than initially thought, The European Central Bank are now giving some serious thought to the possibility of cutting interest rates by more than expected. As it stands, markets are fully pricing in a December rate cut of 25 basis points, however due to recent comments, a 50-basis point cut in December is currently standing at 23%. Looking ahead for further guidance, it is expected that between now and June there will be a total of 115 basis points in rate cuts in the five meetings scheduled, which would no doubt weigh heavy on the currency.
We’ve also seen the USD contribute to the EUR weakness this morning, climbing to new highs as uncertainty over US Interest Rates and the upcoming election has kept the USD in demand. The US Dollar is currently at its healthiest level since early August as better than expected economic data has seen expectations for aggressive rate cuts fade. Traders and markets were last seen pricing in a 25-basis point cut in Novembers meeting at 89.5%, which is markedly better than when the rumour-mill was leaning towards 50 basis-point cuts.
Also helping The Dollar is growing expectations that Donald Trump will win The US election in the coming weeks. This is mainly due to his policies around protecting The US which is helping to boost The Dollar.
Moving towards the afternoon, we have The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. Anticipation is building and leaning more towards a 50-basis point cut, which will be the fourth consecutive interest rate cut. The move towards a 50-basis point cut is largely due to their inflation dropping below the 2% mark for the first time since the pandemic in 2020, showing that prices had risen by 1.6% in September.
It’s worth noting that The Bank of Canada’s ideal inflation range is between 1% – 3%, however a mid-range of 1.5% is the preferred number. Comments made by Governor Tiff Macklem emphasised just this last month, saying that further rate cuts are a reasonable expectation to bring inflation to the middle ground of the 1% – 3% range.
GBP/EUR 1.2027 GBP/USD 1.2974 GBP/AED 4.7675
GBP/AUD 1.9493 GBP/CHF 1.1254 GBP/CAD 1.7942
GBP/NZD 2.1541 EUR/USD 1.0772 GBP/ZAR 22.8709