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A rebound in the EUR against both the GBP and USD

Yesterday we did see a bounce back for the EUR against GBP and USD, with the latter seeing movements of up to 0.7% in favour for the EUR. After a few days of political turmoil in France – it looks like the left-wing and far right parties might move closer to an agreement of how the budget could find an agreement. It would implement a slower pace on cutting France budget deficit when moving into next year. Even if it’s not been agreed upon, it’s giving markets a little more visibility on how a solution for France can take place –reducing some uncertainty for now.

Today being the first Friday of the month, means that at 1.30pm we will have non-farm payroll. Being a very volatile data release, seeing the last two releases causing daily fluctuations of 0.7% for the day. Last month highlighted a big slowdown in the US job market only producing 12k jobs, whereas expectations were around 130k new jobs – seeing the USD falling. For today, we have forecast of 200k new jobs being created. The issue is that non-farm is very unpredictable and if we don’t see the US job market keeping up with expectations today, we can see USD fall further. Earlier in the week we did see ADP jobs data falling slightly and followed by yesterday’s unemployment rate increasing. Even if ADP normally don’t correlate to non-farm payroll – we could have seen early signs this week of a continuing struggling labour market in the US. It will be vital to keep a close eye on today’s numbers as we are moving closer to Federal Reserve’s next interest meeting, which will take place in two weeks.

Looking ahead for next week – on Wednesday core inflation and inflation rates for the US will be released, it’s currently forecasted to be unchanged from previous months numbers and will be important ahead of their interest rate meeting the following week. Followed on Thursday with GBP figures for the UK and ECB interest rate decision, which is still expected to be cut by 25 basis points.

GBP/EUR 1.2049 GBP/USD 1.2741 GBP/AED 4.6827
GBP/AUD 1.9851 GBP/CHF 1.1196 GBP/CAD 1.7895
GBP/NZD 2.1805 EUR/USD 1.0562 GBP/ZAR 23.0075

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