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GBP Outlook and Optimism Towards US Economic Developments

After a tough start to 2025 for GBP, today in terms of economic data releases we can see a break for Pound Sterling. The recent development for UK with rising bond yields will continue to create market speculations on how the government will tackle this situation with potential tax increases (fiscal policies). For today there is not a large amount of data out, hence there is still very important releases with in particular the non-farm payroll. Before we delve into it – we did hear from Federal Reserve member’s yesterday on their future outlook.

Overall it’s members and specifically Jeff Schmid is optimistic over 2025 for US economic development. Interestingly he started off with discussing interest rate levels and mentioned that he believes that it’s current levels are ‘’pretty close’’ to neither stimulate or halt demand for the US economy. This is only a couple of days after soon to be President elect Donald Trump said that interest levels for the US needs to come down. Jeff Schmid highlighted his objectives when it comes to inflation, mentioning that if the economy continues on the same path, inflation levels will settle themselves and there won’t be a requirement from the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sharply. He then continued to discuss employment levels for the US with optimism saying that with lower tax levels the economy will start to strengthen, and this will lead to a stronger job market.

Leading us onto today and the most important data release when it comes to US job data – non-farm payroll. Forecast ahead of todays release is that we will see 160k additional jobs created, a fall off of 67k jobs compared to its previous month of 227k. As we know, it’s very speculative data and we will have to wait and see until 1.30pm what the actual figures are as they tend to be very volatile. What we do know is that if numbers would come out as forecasted, this would create an average new job created per month to 180k in 2024, the lowest levels in three years.

GBP/EUR 1.1928 GBP/USD 1.2289 GBP/AED 4.5153
GBP/AUD 1.9880 GBP/CHF 1.1217 GBP/CAD 1.7721
GBP/NZD 2.2044 EUR/USD 1.0290 GBP/ZAR 23.3335

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