Walking into the Tuesday session, we start off with UK mortgage data in the morning. Expectations looks like mortgage approvals are on a slight down trend in October if we compare to its previous figures of September. With the UK Autumn Budget being released tomorrow, we can suspect that people are holding off their mortgage decisions until we have a clearer outlook of the government’s path of moving forward. It’s not only forecasted to see less mortgage approvals but net lending to individuals is also expected to come down in October, seeing consecutive increases month-by-month since July up to September.
By midday US will release their goods trade balance for October, looking to be lowered ever so slightly compared to its numbers back in September – this could potentially have a small negative impact on the USD if numbers do come out as expected or even lower. We could see this market movement be very short cause by 2pm we have consumer confidence and job openings for the US. Starting off with consumer confidence, forecasting is that we should see an improvement to its previous month in September, 98.7. Expected figure for October is set at 99.3, which is moving closer to the psychological of 100. If numbers would come in closer to 100 or even above, this can lead to a more overall confident view of the US and USD can take advantages of this and strengthening. The high impact event of the day is out at the same time, JOLT’s job openings. The survey collects data across retails and manufacturers , federal, state, and local government to count all job positions that are available by the end of each month. Expectations for October is that there will be 50k less job openings than back in September. If we see this data even lower, we can see USD weakness on the back foot of this data – which would suggest and cement that the overall US job market is struggling to both keep people in employment but also noticing that employers now are finding it difficult to create more job opportunities.
We can see that since Friday both GBP/EUR and GBP/USD are trading at rate that’s almost unchanged. Indicating that markets are anticipating more eventful data, which could potentially be the start today at least if we look at GBP/USD which will be exposed to majority of the main data releases for today’s trading session. Currently just below the 1.30 mark, we could see outcomes moving in both directions based on how today’s data will come out.
GBP/EUR 1.1985 GBP/USD 1.2973 GBP/AED 4.7676
GBP/AUD 1.9731 GBP/CHF 1.1234 GBP/CAD 1.8006
GBP/NZD 2.1700 EUR/USD 1.0813 GBP/ZAR 22.9268