After a great run of outperformance since February, UK economic data has generally underwhelmed since mid-May, according to analysts.
Nevertheless, the strong-than-expected data since the start of the year has prompted upgrades to the economic outlook for the current year. Meanwhile, the slower-than-expected moderation in UK inflation in April has raised the odds of a Bank of England (BOE) rate hike this month.
BOE hiked its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in May after pausing in April, and the market is pricing in almost four rate hikes by the end of the year, taking the terminal rate to 5.41% from 4.50% currently.
The next week bring UK jobs, GDP, and manufacturing output data ahead of the BOE meeting on June 22, which could stir things up a bit for GBP. Until then, the pound could be due for a breather after a spectacular run against some of its peers.
The dollar wobbled on Wednesday as expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week receded, though currency moves were subdued as traders contemplated whether an end to the global monetary policy tightening cycle was near.
The Australian dollar peaked at $0.6690 in early Asia trade, its highest since mid-May, buoyed by lingering effects of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) quarter-point interest rate increase to an 11-year high on Tuesday.
The decision and the RBA’s hawkish policy statement had sent the Aussie rising 0.8% in the previous session, with governor Philip Lowe warning of more tightening on the cards because inflation was still too high.
GBP/EUR 1.1605 GBP/USD 1.2407 GBP/AED 4.5506
GBP/AUD 1.8586 GBP/CHF 1.1257 GBP/CAD 1.6632
GBP/NZD 2.0351 EUR/USD 1.0670 GBP/ZAR 23.682