Sterling rebounded towards the end of last week due to better than expected Retail Sales in January. The main factor behind the increase was the horrendous weather in the UK most likely prompting consumers to panic buy essentials.
Moving forward this could contribute to an improvement in UK Inflation figures which is a key focus for the Bank of England when deciding on Interest Rates.
Throughout this week there isn’t any major economic releases for the UK, however on Tuesday EU leaders will hold a general affairs council with one of the topics being Brexit.
It is possible the EU will reaffirm their position on Brexit and the demands they’ve proposed to the UK. Any continuation of the EU’s stance on Brexit could have detrimental effects for GBP.
The USD is so far the best performing currency of 2020 and is expected to continue performing strongly throughout this week. U.S consumer confidence, New Home Sales & Income/Spending is all expected to have shown growth in January which will thwart any thoughts of a rate cut from The Fed Reserve for the short term.
Consumer confidence in Europe beat expectations convincingly last week to provide the single currency with some much-needed positivity.
However, Business climate surveys tomorrow suggest Germany are still worryingly close to a recession and will give investors a more accurate idea of how quickly Europe’s economy is slowing.
Europe’s factory sector has been the worst hit sector for Europe with Car Manufacturing in particular feeling the strain of the Coronavirus Outbreak. China’s economy has been running at 50% capacity over the past week, with Chinese ports running at 20%-50%. Anymore Coronavirus Outbreaks in Europe will only lead to further damage for Germany and Europe with true economic effects not entirely felt until May/June.