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Sterling consolidated gains today as the market geared up for a rate rise from the Bank of England this week when investors will analyse the bank’s statement for the future direction of interest rates.
With continued Brexit uncertainty and a mixed bag of results for the British economy, the expected rate hike is likely to be a one-off move, analysts said, rather than the start of a fully-fledged tightening cycle.
If there is no hike – which is completely possible – the pound will be sold off, it would plummet.
The most likely scenario is a rate hike and it should have limited upside as this is priced in, especially if it’s a one-off scenario.
Sources we work close to are suggesting that the vote will be a 6-3 in favour of a rate hike.
The dollar slipped to an 11-day low today, with investors turning cautious after news that investigators probing Russian interference in last year’s U.S. elections had charged President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager.
Against a basket of major currencies, the dollar also slipped, having fallen from its highest in three months at the end of last week.
GBP/EUR 1.1335
GBP/USD 1.3191
GBP/AED 4.7480
GBP/AUD 1.7204
GBP/CAD 1.6943
GBP/CHF 1.3159
GBP/NZD 1.9288
EUR/USD 1.1623
GBP/ZAR 18.511