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19/08/2024 – Exchange Rates

Last week was very encouraging for Sterling bulls with GBPEUR rising above 1.17 and GBPUSD rising above 1.29. Retail sales coming in strong on Friday closed off the week perfectly for Sterling, alongside good jobs data- the retail sales data was aided by England’s performance in the Euros and better weather- generally we see strong spending in the Summer so this should continue into next month, which means with supportive data, Sterling should remain a strong runner amongst the G10.

This week we have a few releases of note, the first being on Tuesday morning where we have EU CPI data, the expectation is that we see MoM data fall to 0% showing no inflation whatsoever, and the yearly number staying at 2.9%- this will be followed by 2 Fed speeches which will be interesting as we edge closer to Septembers meeting where we are expecting a cut from the Fed.

On Wednesday we have the FOMC minutes release- which we am expecting to be a non event, we have already heard from the Fed and we know that they are looking to cut in September, so we may see some sharp moves just before release but I do not believe we will learn anything new following this release.
On Thursday, Jackson Hole Symposium begins- which is a big conference which includes speeches by many Central Bankers from around the world- we are expecting to see the Fed introduce the idea of cuts and easing- so any speeches from Central Bankers will be market movers this week, as they will be directly addressing each other and their own economies at this conference. On Thursday morning we have flash PMI’s from Europe and the UK, we are expecting positive releases for both, and later we have the same for the U.S, but we are not expecting strong data for the Dollar- which could weaken USD through Thursday afternoon.

Overall this isn’t a majorly data packed week, but there will be flashes of volatility due to speeches and some select releases- if you have a particular case that you wish to discuss please don’t hesitate to contact us.

GBP/EUR 1.1736 GBP/USD 1.2955 GBP/AED 4.7598
GBP/AUD 1.9378 GBP/CHF 1.1200 GBP/CAD 1.7709
GBP/NZD 2.1257 EUR/USD 1.1024 GBP/ZAR 22.938

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