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10/04/2024 – Exchange Rates

The US Dollar has steadied this morning, as anticipation builds towards the key inflation release for The U.S this afternoon. It’s expected that inflation will have remained an issue for The Federal Reserve in March, with figures suggesting inflation will have crept back up towards 3.4%-3.5%. A release which would give The Federal Reserve less of a reason to begin cutting Interest Rates, which would be a strong follow-up from the blowout Non-Farm Payroll report last Friday. Both of which would again further support less of a reason for The Federal Reserve to cut. Following this release later today is the minutes from March’s central bank meeting in The US, which at the time suggested 75 basis points worth of cuts, with a caveat that sticky inflation could potentially change this outlook. So, all eye on the minutes….

Sticking with Central Banks, up next is The Bank of Canada’s policy meeting this afternoon. It’s widely expected that the BoC keep their rates on hold whilst it takes time to gather more evidence of inflation cooling before delivering its first rate cut in 4 year. Which as it stands is expected to be as early as June, according to market bets anyways. Now although Canada’s inflation has eased dramatically from the 8.1% peak of June 2022, Friday’s job’s survey showed concerning weakness in the job market, and therefore gives policymakers some food for thought.

Tomorrow’s focus is also on Central Banks with The ECB releasing their interest rate decision. Again it’s pretty much expected that they’ll keep rates on hold, as right now each central bank seems to be holding their cards close to their chests, and with that the press conference afterwards which usually provides forward guidance could potentially be a non-event. Either way however, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on as any change in the outlook for The European Central Bank could see the Euro benefit against its currency peers, or drop off further.

GBP/EUR 1.1675 GBP/USD 1.2676 GBP/AED 4.6480
GBP/AUD 1.9147 GBP/CHF 1.1458 GBP/CAD 1.7202
GBP/NZD 2.0800 EUR/USD 1.0845 GBP/ZAR 23.442

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